No matter how many elections you’ve lived through, each one can feel a bit like a wildcard when November draws near and you’re wondering whether you should make a move—or wait until the dust settles.  Generally speaking, presidential elections have only a small and temporary impact on the housing market. That said, it’s natural to be curious as to how an election could impact your decision to buy or sell a home this year.   So, here’s a quick rundown of what you can expect from this year’s election, based on what has happened in election years past.  How do Elections Impact the Housing Market? Home Sales For the past several election years, November has typically brought a slight slowdown in U.S.  home sales. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, confirms that while home sales are generally unchanged during an election year, November is slower than normal.  That temporary downtick is mainly due to people feeling uncertain and hesitant about making a big decision (like buying or selling a home) when they perceive an election’s outcome could have a real impact on their financial situations or where they want to live next.  It’s a pivotal time. It’s also short-lived. Home sales generally bounce back in December and continue to climb the following year.  In fact, according to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the following year.  Home Prices According to Bankrate, home price appreciation during past election years has outpaced that of the surrounding non-election years.  A Bankrate analysis of Case-Shiller data shows home prices rose an average of 4.84% in the nine election years we’ve had since 1987, compared to an average 4.44% in the 28 non-election years.  Based on that, you might think presidential elections are good for the housing market. The reality is a bit more complicated.  Home price appreciation by year from 1987 to 2023 (election years in bold font): 1987:  7.22% 1988:  7.23% 1989:  4.39% 1990: -0.69% 1991: -0.17% 1992:  0.82% 1993: 2.16% 1994: 2.52% 1995: 1.79% 1996: 2.43% 1997: 4.02% 1998: 6.44% 1999: 7.68% 2000: 9.29% 2001: 6.68% 2002: 9.56% 2003: 9.82% 2004: 13.64% 2005: 13.51% 2006: 1.73% 2007: -5.40% 2008: -12.00% 2009: -3.85% 2010: -4.11% 2011: -3.88% 2012: 6.44% 2013: 10.71% 2014: 4.51% 2015: 5.20% 2016: 5.31% 2017: 6.21% 2018: 4.52% 2019: 3.68% 2020: 10.43% 2021: 18.87% 2022: 5.65% 2023: 5.56% In recent decades, the worst election year by far for the U.S. housing market was 2008. Home values that year plunged 12% as the historic housing bubble of 2004–2007 finally burst. The housing market crash had nothing to do with the tension surrounding the election. It was all thanks to horrendous economic timing. The global economy was collapsing. The silver lining was the suddenly gigantic room for improvement.  Granted, this is the one election year in the past few decades when home price appreciation was actually down from the previous year (from -5.40% to -12.00%).  The best year for home price growth since 1987 was 2021, when home values skyrocketed 18.9% amid record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic housing boom. Again, the extreme housing market conditions that year had nothing to do with a new president taking office.  Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are a big deal because they determine how big your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. So, it’s natural to want to know whether these rates tend to go up or down during an election year—or what you can expect with rates before and after an election.  Based on data from Freddie Mac, mortgage rates have declined from July to November in eight of the past 11 presidential elections.  Moving on to the aftermath of this year’s election, most housing market forecasts show mortgage rates easing slightly throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. Assuming they’re correct, this year will continue the trend of declining interest rates leading up to the election—and keep rates on a downward trend in the months to follow.  Lower rates can translate into lower monthly payments. But lower rates also mean more buyers are likely to enter the market.  That means buyers who wait for rates to fall below 6% will likely encounter fierce competition for available homes, driving up home prices and all but eliminating concessions that could make the home more affordable.  Final Thoughts While presidential candidates often hype up the economic plans they have for their first year in office, economists tend to agree they have little to no influence over the housing sector. Doesn’t mean they won’t try to convince you otherwise.   The housing market may seem confusing right now (even if you’re not sweating the election), but with the right information and a focus on local data, you can navigate it confidently.  For an even more personalized data report for your home or neighborhood, reach out to me here.   Sources:  U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Realtor.com Bankrate Bankrate analysis of Case-Shiller data  

  When it comes to long-term investments, Americans have a clear favorite: real estate.  According to a recent Gallup poll, 36% of Americans believe real estate is the best long-term investment, outpacing stocks (22%), gold (18%), savings accounts (13%), bonds (4%) and cryptocurrencies (3%). Why is that the case? Let’s dive into why so many people believe that owning property is the ultimate way to build wealth over time.  The Popularity of Real Estate as a Long-Term Investment For 11 years running, real estate has consistently topped the list of preferred long-term investments in Gallup’s annual Economy and Personal Finance survey.  This preference for real estate is driven by several factors: Tangible Asset: Unlike stocks or bonds, real estate is a tangible asset that you can see and touch. This physical presence provides a sense of security that is hard to match. Appreciation Over Time: Historically, real estate values have shown steady appreciation. From the 1990s to the 2020s, home prices have consistently increased, making real estate a reliable investment. Dual Benefits: Owning a home provides not only potential financial returns but also a place to live. This dual benefit is unique to real estate and adds to its appeal. Gallup’s poll found this preference holds true across all income levels, with 33% of lower income households stating they believe real estate is the best long-term investment, along with 36% of middle income households and 40% of upper income households.  Real Estate vs. Other Investments While real estate is the top choice for many, it’s important to consider how it stacks up against other investments. Stocks, for example, have historically offered higher returns. From 1990 to April 2024, the S&P 500 surged by 1,325%, while the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose by 308%. However, stocks come with higher volatility. Real estate, on the other hand, tends to provide more stable growth. Even during economic downturns, such as the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, real estate has shown resilience and recovery. U.S. home price growth by decade: 1990s: +30.1% 2000s: +47.3% 2010s: +44.7% 2020-2024: +47.1% Locally, home prices have risen 4.3% over the past year, and 45% since 2020.  Is Real Estate the Right Investment for You? Real estate can be a fantastic long-term investment, especially in a growing market like Portland.  But before diving in, consider your individual situation: Long-Term Commitment: Buying a home is a long-term play. If you plan to move in a few years, it might not be the best fit. Financial Strength: Real estate requires a down payment, closing costs, and ongoing maintenance expenses. Make sure you have a solid financial foundation. Investment Goals: Consider your overall investment goals. If you prioritize high returns and easy access to your money, another investment might be a better fit. And keep in mind that diversification leads to a balanced investment strategy. Financial experts recommend spreading investments across various assets to hedge against different market forces and increase the odds of a net profit over the long term. This means integrating real estate within a broader portfolio that includes stocks, bonds, and other investment vehicles.  Bottom line: While poll results show that Americans prefer real estate as a long-term investment, there is no one-size-fits-all answer. Always consult with your financial advisor when planning to invest for your future, as the best option depends on your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment timeline.

A recession is defined as "a period of temporary economic downturn during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters."  In other words, it's when the economy takes a turn for the worse. Recessions can last for months or even years, and often have far-reaching effects on different sectors of the economy.In this blog post, we're going to take a look at how past recessions have affected the housing market and what a recession could mean for you if you're thinking about buying a house in the near future.How Have Past Recessions Affected the Housing Market?Recessions haven't always been bad for the housing market. In fact, during some periods of recession, the housing market has actually thrived. For example, during the recession of 1981-1982, home prices actually rose by 2.1%!However, that isn't always the case. More often than not, recessions have resulted in lower interest rates, which is good news if you're looking to buy soon. For instance, during the most recent recession (2007-2009), interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell from almost 6% in 2007 to around 3.5% by early 2009.Of course, recessions also typically result in job losses—which can impact people's ability to afford a mortgage payment—and foreclosures. However, foreclosures tend to happen more often during periods of economic expansion because that's when people are more likely to take on riskier loans that they might not be able to afford if the economy takes a turn for the worse.What Does This Mean for You?If you're thinking about buying a house in the near future, paying attention to recessionary trends is important. If we do enter into a recession—which some economists believe is likely—it could result in lower interest rates, which would be good news for you as a potential homebuyer. However, it's also important to keep an eye on job security and your overall financial situation before taking on any new debts like a mortgage payment.Recessions are complicated and can often have far-reaching effects on different sectors of the economy—including the housing market. In this blog post, we took a look at how past recessions have affected the housing market and what a recession could mean for you if you're thinking about buying a house soon. While lower interest rates could be good news for homebuyers if we do enter into a recession in the next few years, it's also important to keep an eye on overall trends and your personal financial situation before making any big decisions.

It's no secret that home prices have been on the rise in recent years. But what does the future hold? Will prices continue to go up? Or has the market reached a tipping point? We asked some of the top real estate experts to weigh in with their predictions for what's ahead in 2023. Here's what they had to say. Home prices have been rising steadily for the past few years, but there are signs that the market may be reaching a saturation point. Some experts believe that prices will level off or even begin to decline in the next few years, while others believe that the demand for housing will continue to drive prices upward.  There are a number of factors that could impact home prices in the coming years, including interest rates, inflation, and demographics. Interest rates were at historic lows, which spur'd more buyers to enter the market. However, if rates continue to rise, that could put a damper on things. Inflation is also a wild card; if prices for goods and services increase, that could lead to higher home prices as well.  As for demographics, Millennials are reaching an age where they're looking to settle down and purchase homes of their own. This demographic has already had a big impact on the housing market, and they're expected to continue driving demand in the coming years.  With all of these factors at play, it's tough to say exactly what will happen with home prices in 2023. However, one thing is certain: whether prices go up, down, or sideways, it's going to be an exciting year in real estate!  It's impossible to say with certainty what will happen with home prices in 2023. However, many experts believe that we'll see a leveling off or even a slight decrease in price growth. Whether prices go up or down, one thing is certain: it's going to be an exciting year in real estate! Thanks for reading and be sure to stay tuned for more updates.